Ai-qin Niu, Liang-jun Xie, Hui Wang, Bing Zhu, Sheng-qi Wang

Estrogen receptors (ERs) are nuclear transcription factors that are involved in the regulation of many complex physiological processes in humans. ERs have been validated as important drug targets for the treatment of various diseases, including breast cancer, ovarian cancer, osteoporosis, and cardiovascular disease. ERs have two subtypes, ER-α and ER-β. Emerging data suggest that the development of subtype-selective ligands that specifically target ER-β could be a more optimal approach to elicit beneficial estrogen-like activities and reduce side effects. Herein, we focused on ER-β and developed its in silico quantitative structure-activity relationship models using machine learning (ML) methods. The chemical structures and ER-β bioactivity data were extracted from public chemogenomics databases. Four types of popular fingerprint generation methods including MACCS fingerprint, PubChem fingerprint, 2D atom pairs, and Chemistry Development Kit extended fingerprint were used as descriptors. Four ML methods including Naïve Bayesian classifier, k-nearest neighbor, random forest, and support vector machine were used to train the models. The range of classification accuracies was 77.10% to 88.34%, and the range of area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve values was 0.8151 to 0.9475, evaluated by the 5-fold cross-validation. Comparison analysis suggests that both the random forest and the support vector machine are superior for the classification of selective ER-β agonists. Chemistry Development Kit extended fingerprints and MACCS fingerprint performed better in structural representation between active and inactive agonists. These results demonstrate that combining the fingerprint and ML approaches leads to robust ER-β agonist prediction models, which are potentially applicable to the identification of selective ER-β agonists.