Marcel Carasco, Birgit Kröner-Herwig

Longitudinal studies on headaches often focus on the identification of risk factors for headache occurrence or "chronification". This study in particular examines psychological variables as potential predictors of headache remission in children and adolescents. Data on biological, social, and psychological variables were gathered by questionnaire as part of a large population-based study (N=5,474). Children aged 9 to 15 years who suffered from weekly headaches were selected for this study sample, N=509. A logistic regression analysis was conducted with remission as the dependent variable. In the first step sex, age, headache type, and parental headache history were entered as the control variables as some data already existed showing their predictive power. Psychological factors (dysfunctional coping strategies, internalizing symptoms, externalizing symptoms, anxiety sensitivity, somatosensory amplification) were entered in the second step to evaluate their additional predictive value. Highly dysfunctional coping strategies reduced the relative probability of headache remission. All other selected psychological variables reached no significance, ie, did not contribute additionally to the explanation of variance of the basic model containing sex and headache type. Surprisingly, parental headache and age were not predictive. The model explained only a small proportion of the variance regarding headache remission (R(2) =0.09 [Nagelkerke]). Successful coping with stress in general contributed to remission of pediatric headache after 2 years in children aged between 9 and 15 years. Psychological characteristics in general had only small predictive value. The issue of remission definitely needs more scientific attention in empirical studies.